SWBP: Climate Change

SWBP: Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems, 2007
a book I'm reading, edited by Bjorn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus Center

I've already written a long article on global warming;
I tried to merge as many varying sources on the subject as I could.
Chapter 6, Climate Change, written by Gary Yohe, adding to the subject.

Is it getting hot in here, or is it just me?

Poor developing countries are most vulnerable.

The chapter has a chart for effects in the categories of water, food, health, land, and environment for each degree increase in average temperature (since 1990, I believe). They are: (1 degree)glacier disappearance threatening water supplies for 50M people, 300,000 people would die from climate-related diseases (malaria, diarrhea, and malnutrition), thawing permafrost would damage roads and buildings in parts of Canada and Russia, 10% of land species could face extinction,

(2 degrees) potentially 20-30% decrease in water availability in Southern Africa and the Mediterranean, sharp declines in crop yield in tropical regions, 40-60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa, up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year, 15-40% of species facing extinction,

(3 degrees) serious droughts once every ten years for southern europe, 1-4B more people suffer water shortages, while 1-5B gain water, increasing flood risk, 150-550 additional millions at risk of hunger, and 1-3 million more dying from malnutrition, if carbon fertilization is weak, and 1-170 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year. Also, 20-50% of species would face extinction, including 25-60% of mammals, 30-40% of birds, and a possible onset of Amazon forest collapse (according to some models).

(4 degrees) potential 30-50% decrease in water availability in Southern Africa and the mediterranean, agricultural yields potentially decline by 15-35% in Africa/parts of Australia, e.g., up to 80M more people exposed to malaria, 7-300M more people affected by coastal flooding each year, and around half of the world's nature reserves fail.

(5 degrees) possible disappearance of large Himalayan glaciers, affecting one quarter of China's population and hundreds of millions in India, continued oceanic acidity increases would disrupt marine ecosystems and fish stocks, sea level rise would impact NY, London, Tokyo, Florida, and small islands.

The latest science suggests the earth's average temperature will rise by even more than 5 or 6 degrees, resulting in massive large-scale movements of population, which the author warns could be catastrophic. This degree of change is comparable to what happened between the last ice age and today.

To be fair, there are some benefits/plus's/upsides, surprisingly.

In a survey of the over 100 estimates of the social cost of carbon, a tonne of carbon ranges in social cost from a median of 13 dollars, a mean of 43 dollars, up to 350 dollars. The author of the survey, and another expert, a geographer, agree that 50 bucks per ton is representative of the lowest reasonable estimate of the true social cost of carbon. A fifty buck tax per ton would be something like adding 5 bucks to the price of a barrel of oil.

But over the long term, this would not work. The interest rate would demand a 2-3% increase per year. This is the only way to give the policy traction, he says.