Chapter 14, Terrorism, by Daniel Linotte
Summary and Commentary
Do you fear more than just "fear itself"? (phobophobia)
Or do you wear No Fear t-shirts? (Do you fear people who are unafraid?) Ha.
Terrorism means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.
Terrorism is a daily menace in spots throughout the world, is a global problem, and is one of the main obstacles to security and peace. Meeting the challenge is a complex task, that requires understanding of social conditions, minority and majority status, social stratification and mobility, "territoriality", history, politics, human rights and freedoms, governance and corruption, demographic trends, cultural identity, and modernization. Phew.
Costs of terrorism
-Thousands of individuals are under tight surveillance. In 2006 alone, there were 6,425 terrorist incidents, with 11,886 fatalities. It creates an unnecessary us-them mentality between religions and ethnic groups, and therefore tension, hostility, xenophobia, and anti-immigration and anti-integration of foreign communities. In the long-term, it could hinder political, social, and economic progress within developing countries and between rich and poor countries.
-One study puts the economic cost in 2002 as, "If there were no terrorism incidents in 2002, world GDP would have been 3.6 trillion USD higher than it was that year." 3.6T is more than the combined GDP of the UK and Italy, about 1/3 of the US economy, or about 7-9% of world GDP.
case in point, 9-11
9-11 resulted in hundreds of lost lives. X, actually. And even more permanent disabilities. Y, actually. Suffering. An untold amount. The destruction of planes and buildings were just the beginning of the economic toll:
-Physical assets destroyed amounted to 14B USD for the private sector
-and 2.2B for the public sector.
-Rescue, cleanup, etc. cost at least 11B.
-The stock market fell. Z points in A days.
-wider bonds spreads in the short-term on financial markets
-The insurance industry disbursed 58B dollars.
-200,000 jobs in NY were lost or reallocated
-more controls on the shipping and transportation industry
-public defense spending increased
-the private sector is spending more on security
-higher stress when travelling
-border patrol costs, and affect on exports
-tourism, immigration, and remittances
All that from only x people.
Costs could increase, with wmd's (weapons of mass destruction: nuclear/atomic, biological, chemical, or dirty bombs; abcd, i call it). One of the worst scenarios involves rogue or failed states supplying wmd's to terrorist organizations. Critical transportation or telecommunication infrastructure could be targeted.
SOLUTIONS
-1. Models. Statistical analysis may aid with making forecasting models, to better plan and mobilize resources and forces.
-2. Psychology. To understand suicide terrorism, we need to forget about pegging them as madmen (although I still think they are), and understand it as "trading life for identity." In other words, it can be considered as rational -a welfare gain. As suicide terrorism increases, the identity factor would diminish, thus reducing the incentive to suicide, perhaps. Also, the response must target sponsors, trainers, host countries, and hateful ideologists. (aside: Jesus was a suicide pacifist?)
-3. Development. Poverty can play a role, but needs to be assessed on a case by case basis. For example, 9-11 terrorists were middle-class. But youth violence in the West Bank and Gaza, in addition to vengeance and retaliation factors, is also caused by unemployment and poverty. (Personally, I think all factors matter, some more than others, but maybe what matters most is the proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" in individual terrorist's psychology. We should address the motives of terrorists productively. Economic development I would think would ameliorate the conditions which engender terrorism).
-4. Implement the FATF (financial action task force) recommendations on money-laundering. Informal banking and international seed money for terrorism can be monitored, he seems to be saying. He seems to have confused money-dirtying with money laundering, though.
-5. Adopt maritime security measures. Normal trade could carry a wmd, so the estimated 1.3B pricetag of this may prove well spent (excluding operation, maintenance, and upgrading costs). Developing countries lack resources and expertise, so assistance will have to be provided by rich countries.
-6. Move from integration to assimilation of immigrant communities. Integration is simply inclusion in a society composed of differing ethnic, cultural, and religious segments. Assimilation, however, is absorbing one group into another, and adopting their values. Islamophobia needs to be addressed. Emigration can be contained by democratization, development aid, human rights, and the reduction of gender gaps.
He makes the CBA assessment by pairing the 2002 world defense budget of 0.8T USD with the net benefit of eliminating terrorism that year, 3.6T USD. The B:C ratio is 5.5 (4.4/0.8), which he believes is low, because an effective fight against terrorism might actually cost less.
Other solutions
-7. Countries, if unified, could present a common front against a common enemy.
-8. If anti-Western feelings in Iraq and Afghanistan could be diminished, that would help.
-9. Punitive anti-terrorist actions, especially when unrestrained, lead to retaliation and vicious circles of violence. They are often counterproductive.
-10. A "Marshall Plan" for the Mideast, involving all parties, and recognizing Israel, and consolidating the Palestinian entity, and involving Iran and Syria in a peaceful region, post Iraq-war.
-11. Unspecified societal changes and political reforms to create more "open and democratic societies" that respect multilateralism, universal values, and global governance.
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